以过去1/6/2015至
30/6/2016一年的馬股收市數據来统计或然率，6月尾收市1654，比五月尾收市1626高。數據共272交易日，最高1749，最低1532，平均值1669，標準差值43。以六月收市1654来評估標凖差值，6月的標準差值從－1·04回升至－0·37，比五月－1·04上升，也意味未来一年輸羸比值－37/+63。
如以3年統計，6月的標準差值從－1·77回升至-1·33。也意味風險机会比值－11/＋89。
以目前1MDB負面消息未除，加上人们对經濟前景憂慮，因此综指有可能跌至1584。如無大的負面消息，综指有可能上升至1670或更高1713。
馬股市有不少績優股，但目前股价卻低于股值，因此是大量累積的良机。假如現在不投資，如果遲些經濟好轉，誰会把績優股以低價賣给你？
Based on the past one year data on the closing index FBMKLCI from 1/6/2015 to 30/6/2016 for measuring the probability, the Jun’16 closing index of FBMKLCI stood at 1654, slightly higher than May’16 closing index of 1626. The data is based on a total number of 272 trading days, highest 1749, lowest 1532, mean 1669, standard deviation 43. Based on June’16 closing index of 1654 for measuring the standard deviation, June’16 standard deviation rose from -1.04 to -0.37, indicating that the loss-win ratio could be -37/+63 in the following year.
If it is based on 3 years’ statistics, June's standard deviation rose from -1.77 to -1.33, implying that the loss-win ratio could be -11/+89
On the back of the persisting negative impact from 1MDB and concerns over the economic outlook, it is likely chances that FBMKLCI fall till 1584. Without great negative news, the index may rise till 1670 or even to 1713.
In fact, there are quite a number of quality shares on Bursa, which are currently undervalued. It is therefore a good time now to accumulate them. If you chose not to invest now, who will be willing to sell these quality shares to you at low prices when the economy improves?
